In 2026, 12-inch wafer production capacity in the United States will account for nearly 9%, the highest growth rate (photo by reporter Hong Youfang)

[Reporter Hong Youfang/Hsinchu Report] The U.S.-China technology war has prompted U.S.-China policies to actively subsidize production expansion. According to the forecast of the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI), the global 12-inch production capacity will still reach a new high of 9.6 million pieces per month in 2026. Among them, the US's share of global production capacity will rise from 0.2% in 2022 to nearly 9%, the rate of increase ranking first among all countries.

SEMI said that with the weak demand for memory and logic components, the global 12-inch fab production capacity growth may slow down this year, and the growth rate will drop to about 6%, which is lower than the strong growth of 11% in 2021 and 9% growth in 2022.

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Although the growth of 12-inch production capacity has slowed down, in order to meet the strong long-term demand, the semiconductor industry continues to increase production capacity. SEMI expects that the monthly production capacity of 12-inch will reach 9.6 million pieces in 2026. Wafer foundry, memory and power components are driving 12-inch The main driving force for high production capacity.

SEMI pointed out that TSMC, UMC, Intel, SMIC, Global Foundries, Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Kioxia, Infineon (Infineon), Texas Instruments (TI), etc., there will be 82 new factories and production lines in mass production from 2023 to 2026.

Driven by strong automotive demand and government investment, the proportion of production capacity in the United States, Europe and the Middle East is expected to increase. SEMI estimates that the proportion of 12-inch production capacity in the United States will rise from 0.2% in 2022 to nearly 9% in 2026; And the proportion of the Middle East will also rise from 6% to 7%.

China is facing export controls imposed by the United States, but the government continues to invest in mature 12-inch manufacturing processes. SEMI estimates that the monthly production capacity of 12-inch fabs in China is expected to reach 2.4 million wafers in 2026, and the global proportion will increase from 22% in 2022 to 2026. 25% of the year.

South Korea’s 12-inch fab production capacity will account for 23% of the world in 2026 from 25% in 2022 due to weak demand in the memory market; Taiwan’s 12-inch fab production capacity will decline slightly from 22% to 21% globally ; Japan is facing competition from other regions, and the global proportion of 12-inch production capacity will also drop from 13% to 12%.

SEMI predicts that the compound growth rate of 12-inch fab capacity for analog and power components will reach 30% from 2022 to 2026, which is also the fastest growing project; The compound annual growth rate is about 4%.

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