This is the conclusion of the research center BEROC in the express analysis "Economic activity and inflation" in Belarus.



Inflation in Belarus accelerated from 0.8% in January to 1.3% in February 2023, and prices will continue to rise in the coming months, predicts BEROC, noting the gradual recovery of the growth of the basic consumer price index after a "manual" decrease in October - November 2022. year.



"The trajectory of inflation indicates the preservation of pro-inflationary pressure, which is gradually translated into price growth after the easing of administrative control over them.

Probable factors of this pressure are the weakening of the Belarusian ruble, increased costs due to the transformation of production and logistics connections, and recently, perhaps, an increase in wages," the report says.

In the coming months, price growth is likely to continue at a pace of 0.5-0.7% per month without taking into account seasonality, the analysis notes.

At the same time, there will be a sharp decrease in annual inflation (from 11.7% in February to 6-7% in March and closer to 5% in April).



The volume of investments decreased slightly in February 2023 compared to the January level.

This happened "due to the downward correction of construction and other works and expenses."



"In general, investments in February were significantly below pre-war levels: the business climate in Belarus remains unfavorable, difficulties with supplies are likely to persist in general, despite positive changes in individual sectors.

Support for investment activity in the coming months can be expected from soft money.

- credit policy and, possibly, quasi-fiscal operations," experts believe.

Retail turnover increased slightly in February, but growth slowed down significantly.

Salary increases from October 2022, in the conditions of employment reduction, are still "not enough to speed up consumer demand, the level of which is significantly behind the pre-war level."



On November 28, 2022, Alexander Lukashenko approved the most important parameters of the forecast of social and economic development of Belarus for 2023, according to which GDP growth is planned at the level of 3.8%, real disposable cash income of the population - 4.1%, investments in fixed capital - 22, 3%, export of goods and services — 5.5%.



Inflation is planned at the level of 7-8% according to the decree and 6% - according to the government's plans.