Gao Xiangui, vice chairman of the National Development Council, pointed out that the expansion period of the 15th economic cycle began in February 2016 and reached its peak in January 2022, lasting 71 months.

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[Reporter Wu Xintian/Taipei Report] The National Development Council today determined that the peak of Taiwan's 15th economic cycle will be in January 2022, which means that the current economic climate is in a period of contraction. When will it bottom out and rebound?

According to the National Development Council, according to estimates, it may be in April this year, but there are still many variables.

Gao Xiangui, vice chairman of the National Development Council, pointed out that the expansion period of the 15th economic cycle began in February 2016 and reached its peak in January 2022. It lasted for 71 months, ranking the second longest in history. She analyzed three factors. :

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First of all, the US-China trade war and the return of Taiwanese businessmen to Taiwan during this period have significantly increased Taiwan's investment rate and supported economic growth, which is significantly different from the previous situation in which Taiwan received orders and overseas production; As a result, Taiwan's exports, which are mainly information and communication and electronic components, performed very well. Finally, thanks to Taiwan's proper epidemic prevention, production was almost uninterrupted and its economic growth performance was maintained.

In 2020, the economies of almost all countries will experience negative growth. Taiwan can still maintain an economic growth rate of 2.98%, ranking among the top in the world.

When will this contraction reach its bottom?

Gao Xiangui explained that in the past, the contraction period of the business cycle averaged 15 months. Starting from February 2022, April this year should be the bottom.

However, she emphasized that the shape and length of each business cycle may not be the same, and relevant economic indicators still need to be observed.

Gao Xiangui pointed out that this year's situation is too volatile and changeable, and several indicators show that Q2 may experience a bottoming of the economy: first, the contraction period of the previous business cycle was 15 months on average, and it is estimated that the bottom will be in April; secondly, the economic cycle released in February At the same time as the light signal, the indicator is still down, indicating that the economic cycle is still in the contraction period, but we can also see that the leading indicator has risen for three consecutive months, coupled with the survey of the manufacturers of the business climate test point of the Taiwan Institute of Economics

It has rebounded for 3 consecutive months, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) of the Chinese Academy of Economics has rebounded, and related indicators and signals such as the GDP of the General Office of Accounting and Accounting are expected to bottom out in Q2.

Gao Xiangui also said that there are many variables that affect whether Q2 will bottom out, including the monetary policies of the central banks of major countries, how to strike a balance between suppressing inflation, maintaining stable economic growth, and financial stability; the speed and process of China's economic recovery after the unblocking; Geopolitics, including the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the confrontation between the United States and China, have many variables.

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