The National Development Council today determined that the peak of Taiwan's 15th economic cycle will be January 2022.

(Photo courtesy of the National Development Council)

[Reporter Wu Xintian/Report from Taipei] The National Development Council submitted a report at the 107th committee meeting held today, affirming that the peak of Taiwan’s 15th economic cycle will be in January 2022, and the expansion period will be 71 months, the second longest in history, only This is the second expansion period of the economic cycle that started in September 1956 and lasted 96 months.

Gao Xiangui, vice chairman of the National Development Council, pointed out that since February 2016 was identified as the bottom of the 14th economic cycle, the National Development Council has conducted many internal studies on the peak of the 15th economic cycle.

With the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020, the economies of various countries are in recession, and my country's economic climate continues to rise. Until 2022, the global economy will slow down significantly. In addition, many important domestic economic indicators will weaken. Therefore, we will re-evaluate the peak time of the 15th economic cycle.

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The determination of the peak of the economic cycle adopts measurement methods such as the comprehensive index method and the principal component analysis method, and observes important domestic economic indicators and changes in the economic situation. Considering that the economic cycle should be significant, sustainable, and universal, experts, scholars and government agencies are also invited to jointly After deliberation, identification is made.

Gao Xiangui explained that since March 2016, Taiwan has entered a period of 15 gas cycle expansions. During this period, Taiwan's economy has experienced the impact of Brexit, the US-China trade war, and the COVID-19 epidemic. Taiwan and the epidemic drive the demand for digital transformation, so the economy still maintains positive growth.

Even in 2021, with the recovery of the global economy and the strong demand for technology applications, my country's export momentum is strong, and the economic growth rate is as high as 6.53%.

Until 2022 when the Russo-Ukraine War breaks out, countries raise interest rates sharply in response to inflation, China implements a zero-clearing policy, and the U.S.-China technology dispute resumes, etc., the global terminal demand will slow down, and my country’s economic momentum will gradually weaken. By the fourth quarter of 2022 The economic growth rate turned negative.

Since the economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2022 is the highest in the whole year, it shows that the peak of the economy falls in the first quarter of 2022.

Further observations show that from 2017 to November 2020, the National Development Council's economic countermeasure signal score was only green, and there were many red lights in 2021. The economic countermeasure signal score declined from February 2022, and continued to appear blue since November. The light shows that January 2022 is the peak time.

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