Zeng Dewei, discretionary manager of FedEx (provided by the industry)

FedEx Discretionary Manager Zeng Dewei

The United States announced that the number of JOLTs job openings in January was higher than market expectations, indicating strong demand in the U.S. labor market, bringing heating pressure to wages and inflation.

In addition, Powell recently stated that if the economic data continues to be strong, the FED will raise the end point of interest rates, and may accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes, but also emphasized that no decision has been made on the March meeting. The tone of the hawks has softened significantly, driving major US stocks The index closed in the red, only the Dow Jones index closed slightly in the black, among which the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by more than 2%.

For Taiwan stocks, inspired by the strong performance of U.S. technology stocks, the Taiwan weighted index showed a trend of opening higher in early trading, but it gradually pulled back and corrected during the session. Although semiconductors and shipping showed support, the selling pressure emerged from the traditional production groups, and financial stocks also Weakened and fluctuated back and forth near the flat market, the final index fell 47.54 points to close at 15770.66 points.

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In terms of industry trends, the non-electronic sector still needs to pay attention to the strength of China's promotion of domestic demand industries after the unblocking.

In addition, as the epidemic gradually slows down, international airlines' demand for new aircraft has increased significantly, and the visibility of orders in the aerospace industry has lasted for several years.

The Russo-Ukrainian war has triggered global attention on environmental protection issues, and accelerated the development of related green energy storage industries such as solar energy, wind power, and energy storage. The medium-to-long-term fundamental trend is positive.

For the electronics industry, the market generally believes that the inventory adjustment of the technology industry will come to an end in the second to third quarter of this year. However, after the inventory adjustment is completed, it is still necessary to continue to observe when the demand will recover. From the current point of view, the inventory adjustment will be carried out earlier. There is a chance that the panel, memory and other groups in the market will be corrected first, and the PC supply chain will also see urgent orders in the first quarter, which will bring positive news to the industry.

In addition, the hot topics in the market this year, including the AI ​​supply chain related to ChatGPT, and the long-term trend of electric vehicles, will remain high-speed growth in the next few years.

Looking forward to the market outlook, with the recent signs of rising inflation in the United States, Taiwan stocks still maintain a bullish trend, but in the short term, we still need to pay attention to the risk of retracement and correction. Although the market generally believes that the first quarter of this year will be the bottom, whether the demand will The recovery remains to be seen, whether China's unblocking will bring substantial demand strength, and the Russia-Ukraine war is still a potential uncertainty factor.

Overall, although the short-term market is still worried about inflation and interest rate hikes, opportunities outweigh risks this year. As the IT industry bottoms out in the first quarter of 2023, it is expected to rebound quarter by quarter. It is optimistic that 2023 will get rid of 2022 The short trend of the year, if the market pulls back and corrects in the near future, it is recommended to make a bargain-hunting layout.

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