The latest WTO merchandise trade barometer shows that global merchandise trade lost momentum in the fourth quarter of last year and is likely to remain weak in the first quarter of this year.

(Reuters file photo)

[Financial Channel/Comprehensive Report] The World Trade Organization (WTO) released the latest commodity trade barometer on Wednesday (1st), showing that global commodity trade seems to be losing momentum in the fourth quarter of 2022, and trade volume growth continues to weaken, and may The first quarter of this year remained weak.

In Q3 2022, the growth of global merchandise trade was unexpectedly strong, with an annual increase of 5.6% compared with the same period of the previous year. The cumulative annual growth in the first three quarters of 2022 was 4.4%, which was higher than the 3.5% annual growth predicted by the WTO.

However, according to preliminary statistics on trade volume and other trade-related indicators, trade growth in Q4 in 2022 will turn negative, making the annual value more in line with forecasts.

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The overall barometer index fell to 92.2 from 96.2 in the previous release, indicating weakening growth in trade volumes. A reading of 100 indicates growth in line with the medium-term trend, a reading above 100 indicates above-trend growth, and a reading below 100 indicates below-trend growth .

But the WTO also predicts that the slowdown in trade may be temporary, as container throughput at Chinese ports has begun to pick up after Beijing eased anti-epidemic measures.

On a breakdown, the auto commodity index (105.8) was the only above-trend component index, buoyed by above-trend sales and production data in the U.S., Europe and Japan, offsetting declines in China; exports Orders (97.4) remain below trend but picking up, suggesting near-term upturn; Container Shipping (89.3), Air Freight (87.8), Electronic Components (84.9) and Materials (92.0) all below trend , and continued to fall, pointing to broad trade weakness affecting many industries.

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