"House prices have not rebounded and there is no transaction volume"

[Compilation of Lu Yongshan/Comprehensive Report] Recently, many Chinese media claimed that the pneumonia epidemic in Wuhan has receded and social life has reopened, and the housing market has shown signs of recovery; During the interview, Sheng Sheng said bluntly that the anti-epidemic zero policy in the past three years has brought the economy to a standstill, local fiscal revenue has been cut off, and people's expectations for the future economy are not good. How could it be possible to change so quickly and recover.

Ninety percent of the 600 million houses are in rural areas

He Jiangbing pointed out that according to the survey released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of China, there are 600 million houses in China, 90% are in rural areas and 10% are in cities and towns. A house in a town may have dozens of suites. From the perspective of total capacity, the houses in China live in Three or four billion people is not a problem, it is a surplus, and China's housing prices are generally high, the total market value of the housing market is about 60 trillion US dollars, which shows the size of the housing market bubble.

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He Jiangbing said that China's current economy is not good. The epidemic prevention policy of the past three years has shut down the economy, local fiscal revenue has been cut off, and people's expectations for the future economy are not good. How could it be possible to change so quickly?

"According to my observations, housing prices in various places, especially in second- and third-tier cities, have not rebounded, and there is not even a transaction volume. How can it be possible to recover?"

There are three uncertain risks in the housing market

He Jiangbing said that there are three uncertain risks in China's real estate market. The first is macroeconomic risks, including whether the epidemic will recur and the government may not save private real estate companies. The second is negative population growth. Last year, China's population declined. The demand for housing will decrease as the globalization becomes more and more serious. The third is the poor employment and export situation. Last year, China's consumption was already shrinking. The local finances were emptied in three years of the epidemic, and there was no money to lead investment. Exports have shrunk this year.

In addition, He Jiangbing pointed out that China's international relations have deteriorated since the Ukrainian-Russian War, and the relationship between the two countries has deteriorated sharply after the U.S.-China trade war started in 2018. Not only will exports shrink this year, but some industrial chains will also move outward, which will lead to a large number of Unemployment and employment will be more difficult, residents' income will decrease, and there is no hope of buying a house.

He Jiangbing said that considering the prospects of China's economic growth, he is not optimistic about China's housing market as a whole. Although many experts believe that China's housing market will stabilize or even rise this year, he personally feels that the downward pressure is even greater.

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