Zhan Haorong, manager of Federal Select Technology Stock Fund.

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Zhan Haorong, Manager of Federal Select Technology Stock Fund

U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data fell slightly in January but was still higher than market expectations, showing that although inflation is cooling, the pace has slowed.

In addition, the retail sales, producer price index (PPI) and employment data released in succession in January are still showing strong performance, which also makes Fed officials turn hawkish towards raising interest rates, and there are even rumors of a 2-yard rate hike. Worried again that the Federal Reserve will extend the pace of interest rate hikes. Investors’ panic is heating up, causing the stock market to continue to fluctuate. The weakness of US stocks yesterday (2/22) dragged down the selling pressure of electronic stocks. The four major indexes yesterday (2/22) Except for a slight rise in the SDAQ index, the rest closed down.

Taiwan stocks today (2/23) were not affected by the decline in U.S. stocks. Most groups showed a rebound pattern today. Among them, semiconductor-related groups benefited from ChatGPT and AI themes performed the most strongly. In addition, transportation, tourism, cement groups, etc. With Yang's help, the index rose by more than 100 points, and quickly recovered the moving average after the market opened. The highest point reached 15657.63 points, and finally closed at 15638.51 points, an increase of 1.43%.

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Looking ahead, Taiwan stocks have recently been dragged down by Berkshire's sharp reduction in TSMC's ADR in the fourth quarter and concerns over interest rate hikes, and the pace of fundamental recovery still cannot keep up with the stock price trend. Foreign investors have begun to wait and see for three consecutive weeks. As for the domestic capital, it will continue to do more following the market trend.

However, as many individual stocks have fallen into an irrational upward trend, the phased target of the index has also been achieved, and even container stocks that have underperformed have seen compensatory gains. It is suggested that investors can start to gradually take profits in a timely manner.

In terms of industry, electronics stocks can pay attention to the supply chain related to semiconductors. At present, the market generally believes that inventory adjustment is expected to come to an end in the first quarter of this year and return to normal levels in the second quarter. Even the mobile phone part, which takes a long time to adjust inventory, is expected to see There are signs of bottoming out, while automotive electronics and electric vehicles have benefited from Tesla, and international automotive semiconductor manufacturers have released positive financial reports, and related supply chains have also performed strongly recently.

In terms of production, steel stocks are expected to benefit from the recent rise in quotations in various places, as well as the expected recovery in infrastructure demand after China's unblocking; in addition, you can also pay attention to Taiwan's tax repayment policy for the people, and related retail and tourism stocks are expected to be affected. Benefits, and China's unblocking is also expected to boost the revenue momentum of related domestic demand stocks, such as catering, contact lenses and other ethnic groups.

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