The Chinese Academy of Economic Research released the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for January.

(Photo by reporter Xu Ziling)

[Reporter Xu Ziling/Taipei Report] The Chunghwa Economic Research Institute announced today (10th) that the seasonally adjusted Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in January was 40.4%, contracting for 7 consecutive months, down 3.3 percentage points from the previous month .

Ye Junxian, president of the Chinese Academy of Economics, said that the 10-day annual leave has affected the production of manufacturing companies, and the New Year's holiday has not had the effect of pulling goods, but the index still shows good signals. "Don't be overly pessimistic, the sun is coming soon."

Ye Junxian said that the interviewed manufacturers pointed out that the extra-long annual leave affects production, especially in terms of production quantity. At present, the continuous adjustment of inventory has not felt the obvious effect of the New Year's holiday. New orders are weak, and various industries are relatively weak. Both reported contraction last month.

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However, the Chinese Academy of Economics emphasized that "there is no need for an overly pessimistic interpretation", which is reflected in the two major aspects of inventory and raw material prices. In January, the manufacturing inventory index has shrunk for five consecutive months, and the customer inventory index has continued to fall to the lowest since July 2021. (46.5%); the rebound trend of raw material prices is particularly obvious and leading. The raw material price index continued to rise by 3.9 percentage points to 54.5% in January after it interrupted the decline for five consecutive months in December last year and turned to rise

In addition, with the unblocking of China, the proportion of resumption of work is better than expected, and the strength of recovery is obvious, which will drive the future outlook of industries with high linkage with the Chinese market. The industry is also looking forward to whether the Chinese government will have some revitalization policies in the spring; The pace of interest rate hikes is slowing down, and the demand for upstream terminals is relatively hot, but downstream consumer electronics is still on the sidelines.

In the future outlook part, the manufacturing outlook index for the next 6 months has been contracted for 9 consecutive months, but the rate of tightening continues to pick up. This month, the index jumped 9.6 percentage points to 38.9%.

Ye Junxian suggested that manufacturers can deploy key materials in an appropriate amount and closely observe the subsequent development of the Chinese market.

In January, the six major industries in the manufacturing industry all reported PMI contraction. The industries are ranked according to the speed of contraction: electric power and mechanical equipment industry (35.1%), electronics and optical industry (35.2%), chemical and biotechnology medical industry (39.2%), Basic raw material industry (42.4%), transportation industry (42.6%) and food and textile industry (45.7%).

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