The port of Klaipeda has long been one of the main supply channels for Belarusian potash fertilizers.

In 2013, Belarus even bought a third of the shares of the bulk cargo terminal.

In February of last year, due to sanctions, Lithuania stopped the transportation of Belarusian goods through its Klaipeda port.

"Belaruskali" lost the main transit highway for its products.

Let's see how the flagship of the Belarusian industry worked this year and what is happening at the Saligorsk enterprise now.

What the authorities say

Immediately after the ban on the transit of Belarusian potash through Lithuania, Belarusian officials said that "it will not affect the sphere in any way."

"In fact, we have not lost anything.

Lithuania's economy has lost," said the Prime Minister of Belarus,

Roman Golovchenko

, last February.

On June 3, Golovchenko talked about "diversification of supplies."

"Our potash flows will also be actively reoriented to the markets of African, South American, and Asian countries, including the People's Republic of China.

Therefore, natural diversification of exports is now taking place," the Prime Minister assured.

In July 2022, Lukashenko admitted that "potassium fertilizers can be sold this year less".

"Perhaps, this year we will sell less potash fertilizers in terms of volume, but the prices have soared.

That is, we will provide salaries, our team, and they will pay taxes normally.

That means we won't lose anything in terms of money," Lukashenko said.

What do the statistics show

The Belarusian authorities closed all statistics on the economic activity of "Belaruskali".

There are no export data for 2021-2022, reports on the economic activity of the Belarusian Potash Company and "Belaruskali" are not published.

The latest information is for 2020.

At that time, the net annual profit of the Belarusian Potash Company, the main trader of "Belaruskali", amounted to 580,000 rubles.

In total, in 2020, Belarus sold potassium fertilizers worth 2.4 billion dollars.

According to the National Mineral Information Center of the USA, the volume of production of "Belaruskali" in 2022 amounted to only 3 million tons, which is 60% less than in previous years.

According to the European Statistical Service, last year Belarus still sold mineral and chemical fertilizers in the EU.

In January, February and March, Belarus sold 38.1 million euros worth of mineral and chemical fertilizers to the EU.

For comparison, in 2020, before the introduction of sanctions, Belarus sold EUR 195.7 million worth of potash fertilizers to the EU.

This is 5 times more than last year.

In April, according to the European Statistical Service, the export of Belarusian potash to the EU stopped completely.

In June of last year, the products of "Belaruskali" were sanctioned by the European Union.

Belarusian officials mentioned Russian ports as an alternative to the Klaipeda port.

They were going to deliver potassium through them.

The Belarusian channel ANT reported on the start of such deliveries only in July, that is, only 5 months after the ban on transit through the Lithuanian port.

At that time, there was talk of a contract for transshipment of 2 million tons by the end of the year.

For comparison, in 2020, Belarus exported 7.1 million tons of potassium fertilizers, or 3.5 times more.

Cargo turnover of Russian seaports for the past year amounted to 841.5 million tons and increased by 0.7%.

However, the volume of transshipment of dry cargoes (namely, such cargoes include potassium) decreased by 0.2% compared to 2021.

What is happening on "Belaruskali"

According to Svoboda, the company is now undergoing "natural staff reduction".

Someone's contract ends, it is not renewed, new employees are not recruited either.

Sources at the enterprise inform that cargoes from "Belaruskali" are now sent through the ports of Murmansk and Ust-Lugi.

This is the way to China through the Arctic Ocean.

Some employees also have their salaries cut, sometimes it's a cut in half.

Mainly, the drop in payments affects those who work for a wage in the mine.

From May to the end of October, "Belaruskali" worked at a third of its maximum capacity.

At the moment, the volume of production has slightly increased, but at the same time, miners are being dismissed from work almost in whole teams and directed to the shipment of finished products.

There were and are some services in which, on the contrary, the amount of work has increased - this concerns some repair teams.

"Delivery fell, but product prices rose"

Earlier, the main buyers of Belarusian potash were Brazil, India and China.

Deliveries to these countries continue, but they have also decreased.

Academic director of the independent academic research center Beroc,

Ekaterina Barnukova

, speaks about this .

"For example, supplies to India are now at the level of 45% of last year, they have fallen by more than half.

These deliveries go through Russian railways and possibly through Russian ports.

There were also problems with payment, the payment in rupees was discussed.

There are incomplete figures for China, but they show that deliveries are almost at the full previous volume," says Ekaterina Barnukova.

The expert considers that the prices of potash fertilizers doubled last year, which made it possible to cover some losses in other markets.

"Belaruskali's competitors are talking about a 50% drop in sales.

However, prices for potash fertilizers have almost doubled, judging by the contracts with China.

This allowed us to stay afloat, but now prices are starting to decrease," says Ekaterina Barnukova.

In such a situation, "Belaruskali" will have to reduce employment and salaries, the expert believes.

"We are observing a decrease in prices for all fertilizers.

If next year it is not possible to expand the volume of supplies, then we will have to reduce employment and wages more actively.

We saw salary cuts last year as well, but initially salaries were quite high," says Ekaterina Barnukova.

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