The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research released a survey on economic trends in December last year.

(Provided by Taiwan Institute of Economics)

[Reporter Xu Ziling/Taipei Report] The Taiwan Economic Research Institute released a survey on economic trends today (31st). This is an indicator of bottoming out. The main reason is that my country's unblocking has made the country's traditional industries optimistic. However, it remains to be seen whether the economy will reverse. The technology industry will not have a chance to rebound until at least the second half of the year.

The survey results show that the manufacturing test point in December was 85.97 points, an increase of 0.81 points from the previous month, rising for two consecutive months; the construction industry test point was 92.87 points, an increase of 5.55 points from the previous month, which was also a 2-in-a-row; The test point of the service industry was 89.62 points, a decrease of 1.15 points from the previous month, and it has fallen for 5 consecutive months.

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Sun Ming-te, director of the Business Climate Forecasting Center of the Taiwan Institute of Economics, said that the survey found that compared with the previous month, the survey found that the manufacturing companies’ views on the business climate in December were less positive and more negative, indicating that the bottom of the business climate was at the end of last year; however, looking forward to the next six months, manufacturers are more optimistic , the bullish ones increased by 0.7%, and the bearish ones decreased by 0.4%.

The first bottoming rebound indicator!

2 liters of manufacturing test points in December (provided by Taiwan Institute of Economics)

According to Sun Mingde, the main reason is that the unblocking of China has driven the demand for traditional industries, including petrochemicals, steel, rubber and plastics, machinery, etc. The prosperity of traditional industries will take the lead in responding in the first half of this year. As for the technology industry, including the electronics industry, it may have to wait for inventory adjustment in the second half of this year. Optimism will not pick up until U.S. purchasing power picks up.

As for the rising test points of the construction industry, the main reason is that the government is actively promoting the reform of the public office, not that the housing market has rebounded. According to the analysis of the Taiwan Economic Research Institute, the domestic GDP continues to slow down, the mortgage interest rate has approached 2%, and the third reading of the amendment to the law on average land rights Under such unfavorable factors as the passage of time, the prospect of the housing market in the short term is chaotic and uncertain, showing a pattern of "volume shrinking and prices falling slowly".

In addition, the Taiwan Institute of Economics also released its economic forecast for 2023. The domestic economic growth rate was revised down to 2.58%, which was 0.33 percentage points lower than the previous forecast. Investment will be the main force supporting the economy this year.

As for inflation, the Taiwan Economic Research Institute estimates that Taiwan’s consumer price increase rate (CPI) will be 1.95% in 2023, which remains unchanged from the previous forecast.

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