Zhang Jianyi, president of the Taiwan Institute of Economics, is worried that if China's consumption explodes after the lockdown is lifted, it may be "double-edged swords" for the global economy.

(Provided by Taiwan Institute of Economics)

[Reporter Xu Ziling/Taipei Report] China has implemented "zero-zero" measures for epidemic prevention for three years. Since the end of last year, it has gradually lifted the blockade. The next move and its impact on the world have attracted much attention.

Scholars are worried that if China's consumption returns after the lockdown is lifted, it may follow in the footsteps of the United States' rapid recovery and high inflation, and even form the next wave of global inflation, which will further impact my country's production and exports.

The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research released a survey on economic trends today (31st), in which the manufacturing business climate test points rose by 2 consecutively. According to the Taiwan Institute of Economics, it is the first domestic index to bottom out. But it remains to be seen whether the economy will turn around, and the technology industry will not have a chance to rebound until at least the second half of the year.

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Taiwan’s economic growth rate in 2023 has been revised down to 2.58%. Zhang Jian, president of the Taiwan Institute of Economics, has always said that the key is that the global economy is full of uncertainties. The international situation impacts my country’s private investment and exports. Domestic consumption and government investment will be the support for this year. the workhorse of the economy.

Zhang Jianyi also mentioned that the situation in China is a big variable for the economy this year. Real estate investment and private consumption have always been the two major engines of the Chinese economy, and China is now going through the throes of unblocking. We must observe whether consumption recovers after March. " It remains to be seen whether people’s consumption behavior will change after China’s lockdown for such a long time.”

If China's consumption explodes after the unblocking, it may be a "two-sided sword" for the global economy. Although it will contribute to the growth of the world economy, Zhang Jianyi also reminded that from the experience of the United States, the rapid recovery after the epidemic has caused prices to rise. It remains to be seen whether China's inflation will increase, which in turn will affect labor demands for higher wages, increase the production costs of Chinese enterprises, further export to the world, and form the next wave of global inflation.

"Inflation is the most critical factor this year," Zhang Jianyi said. Inflation affects terminal demand and has a great impact on exports of Taiwan's traditional industries. However, he also admitted that inflation may continue as the Russia-Ukraine war continues. 1 to 2 years.

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