The annual transaction value of national commercial real estate land from 2018 to 2022 and the number of pre-sale houses resold in December in the whole country and Qidu in 2021 and 2022
Reporter Xu Yiping / special report
Last year, the number of buildings bought and sold across the country declined for the first time in six years, and this year there is a high probability that it will directly drop to 300,000 buildings.
Last year, the number of buildings bought and sold across the country declined for the first time in six years. Some real estate agents directly predicted that the housing market will shrink for two consecutive years. This year, there is a high probability that it will directly fall below 300,000 buildings. During the peak period, there were 348,200 buildings, a decrease of more than 50,000 buildings in transaction volume.
Real estate industry experts pointed out that especially the Legislative Yuan passed the amendment to the "Average of Land Rights Act" in the third reading. It is expected that after the law is implemented, the purchase price of pre-sale houses will be frozen. In addition, the existing housing market has already had "real estate and land integration 2.0" for 5 years. A heavy tax of 45% is imposed on domestic resale. It is expected that the faucets of pre-sale and new housing supply will be locked simultaneously this year.
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Housing prices have limited room to fall by up to 10%
The industry believes that, combining the above factors, coupled with the uncertain outlook of the global economy this year, the tightening of funds and the pressure of interest rate hikes, the real estate market is showing a pattern of simultaneous shrinkage of supply and demand; as for housing prices, the room for decline is still limited, with a maximum range of only 10%.
According to the Yongqing housing survey, the ratio of bearish housing prices this year is as high as 46%. It is almost predictable that the housing market will move towards "shrinking volume and falling prices". Among them, Shuangbei City fell by about 3% to 5%, and the highest drop outside Greater Taipei was 8% to 10%. Especially in the past Areas with high house price increases over the past four years will also experience a relatively large decline in house prices this year. It is estimated that the number of buildings transferred for sale and purchase nationwide this year will fall below 300,000.
Ye Lingqi, general manager of the business of Yongqing Real Estate Group, suggested that people who want to buy a house this year can refer to the real price registration in 2021 for the bid amount. Compared with 2022, there is about 8% to 10% room for price concessions.
People who want to buy a house this year can refer to the real price in 2021
Huang Shuwei, director of Colliers International’s homeowner representative service department, said that the number of buildings registered for the first time last year will break the record high since 2009, and the same will happen in the next 2 or 3 years. Therefore, even if the real estate market turns cold, the numbers on the book will only be revised by 10% or 20% at most.
However, according to statistics from the Ministry of Finance, after the first interest rate hike in March last year, real estate sales experienced double-digit declines from time to time, with the most astonishing annual drop of 68.84% in July last year.
This year, under the pressure of continuous credit control, interest rate hikes, and amendments to the "Equal Land Rights Regulations", the real estate market not only lacks investment with easy funds to support the purchase of real estate buyers, but even people who change houses for self-occupation wait and see and wait for price cuts. The downward price pressure driven by the contraction is extremely great, which may not be comparable to the previous wave of credit controls and tax increases.
It is not easy for the real estate market to enter the consolidation stage in the short term
Zeng Jingde, the project manager of Xinyi Housing Real Estate Enterprise Research Office, said that although many bad news have gradually faded this year, there is not much good news to form a strong support for the housing market. In the second half of the year, there will be a presidential election, which will still interfere with the housing market. Confidence in house prices has also turned from optimism to conservatism. The time to look at houses has been prolonged, and the room for price negotiation has increased slightly. The economic cycle of the housing market has also entered a consolidation stage from high-end. , the see-saw situation between buyers and sellers will improve.
Real estate market commentator He Shichang believes that in the first half of the year, due to the interference of the "Average Land Title Act" amendment and economic recession, house buyers will take a conservative wait-and-see attitude, the transaction volume will continue to shrink, and the operating pressure of real estate brokerage stores will not be small; but in the second half of the year If the price corrects significantly, the transaction volume will rebound quickly. Coupled with the flood of new house deliveries, the housing market outlook for this year is "conservative in price and optimistic in volume". growing up.
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