The largest buyers and builders have shrunk their hands, and the national land transaction volume in 2022 will almost halve compared with 2021.
Reporter Xu Yiping / special report
According to the statistics of merchants, the volume of land transactions across the country will shrink significantly in 2022, even almost halved compared to 2021. The main reason is that the largest buyers and builders shrink their hands. It is expected that this situation will continue for several years.
As for commercial real estate transactions, due to interest rate hikes and economic problems, buying for self-use has returned to a conservative and wait-and-see attitude, while buying for investment is relatively strong.
Real estate industry experts pointed out that the central bank has imposed selective credit control four times in the past, especially restricting construction companies and civil engineering financing. Among them, the maximum loan ratio for land purchase is 50%, and 10% of them will only be allocated when construction starts. As high as 50%, that is, half of the land price must be paid in one lump sum.
Therefore, Yan Bingli, managing director of Cushman & Wakefield, believes that in the past, there were no restrictions on land reduction and construction financing, and builders could borrow courage (funds) from banks to buy land. However, after the regulation, builders lost their courage, and naturally their land purchase strategies became conservative.
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In the past 3 years, the land transaction volume has reached 1 trillion yuan, and the builders are under great pressure to eliminate it.
Huang Shuwei, director of Colliers International's owner representative service department, believes that the main reason for the shrinking land transaction volume is that Taiwan has accumulated at least 1 trillion yuan in land transaction volume in the past three years. Interest rates have risen, and this year, the amendment to the "Average Land Title Act" has hit the pre-sale market hard. Under many unfavorable conditions such as financing, inflation, and sales, the future will face the risk of a global economic downturn. Willingness to flame out.
According to Huang Shuwei's analysis, credit control restricts the land market and real estate speculation funds, and the revision of the "Equal Land Title Act" threatens investment in pre-sale houses, all of which are clearly controlled by the policy; relatively speaking, commercial real estate is not within the scope of policy control, and the market transaction volume has shrunk The main reason is that global interest rates are rising too fast. On the one hand, investors are forced to adjust the profit curve.
Asset allocation demand still has companies paying high prices to scan goods
However, if the buyer has no demand for loans and no pressure to pursue short-term returns, judging from the effect of rapid inflation, industrial recovery after the epidemic, or the asset allocation needs of global supply chain restructuring, the buyer is full of motivation to enter the market and grab goods ; Therefore, even though life insurance companies and construction companies are absent from the market, there are still commercial real estate transaction records with high total prices and new highs.
Real estate expert He Shichang pointed out that although the rise and fall of the office market is positively related to the overall economy, the economic outlook next year is quite weak, and the demand for corporate purchases of commercial offices may be affected. In the first year of the boom, it was like rain after a long drought. In addition, the amendment to the "Average of Land Rights Regulations" prompted funds to be transferred to the office market. It is expected that the office market is not over yet.
In contrast to the land market, due to the economic downturn and restrictions on lending, the transaction volume may continue to slump.
Zeng Jingde, project manager of Xinyi Real Estate Enterprise Research Office, said that when builders have a conservative outlook on the future, their willingness and enthusiasm to acquire land will decline. In addition, the central bank restricts the amount of land purchase loans for developers, and small builders will also encounter funds. In the future, developers may become "big ones and ever-larger", and the land transaction market can also be expected to shrink. In particular, the policy of prohibiting resale of pre-sale houses may be implemented. In the future, sales of existing houses should gradually increase.
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