Futures analysts pointed out that Taiwan stocks have rebounded since the end of December last year. Judging from the few trading days before the closure of the customs, although the volume has shrunk, it is still in a rebounding trend based on the pattern.
[Reporter Huang Haochen/Taipei Report] Today is the closing day for Taiwan stocks before the Lunar New Year. The index closed at 14932.93 points, a small increase of 5.92 points. The year of the golden tiger has fallen by 2741.47 points; futures analysts point out that Taiwan stocks have been closed since the end of December last year Ushering in a wave of rebound so far, judging from the few trading days before the closure of the customs, although the volume has shrunk, but from the perspective of the pattern, it is still in a rebound situation. The view on the opening of the Year of the Rabbit is more optimistic. If there is no black swan during the market break If there is an event, there is an opportunity to expand the rise. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the destocking status of electronics factories in the next year, and also pay attention to the stock price performance after the company releases its annual report.
Qunyi Futures analyst Yu Weide said that looking back at the fourth quarter of last year, the index rebounded after bottoming out in October, and then rebounded after a small pullback in early December. Currently, Taiwan stocks are still in the rebound trend, but these days due to Facing the closing day, the trading volume has shrunk, and the performance is less enthusiastic, but it is still on the high side in terms of patterns. In addition, if there is no black swan during the Chinese New Year, there is a chance to expand the red market at the opening of the new year.
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However, Yu Weide also reminded that the electronic factories in the United States and Taiwan have the problem of excessive inventory, and Taiwan stocks are dominated by electronic stocks. It is currently expected that the electronic factories are expected to complete the inventory reduction in the first half of the year, but if it does not meet expectations, there will be greater risks. Variables, we should also pay attention to the announcement of many corporate annual reports after the Chinese New Year. At that time, the short-term market will be reflected in the financial reports.
In terms of chips, Liu Jialun, an analyst at Yongfeng Futures, said that until the closing date, foreign funds had been overbuying in spot for 9 consecutive days, and the net long position of foreign funds in futures was still nearly 10,000 contracts. The short ratio maintains a negative value (-26.44% today) and the trend is also more favorable. Overall, big funds are optimistic about the opening of the Year of the Rabbit. In addition, according to statistics from 2000 to 2022, the first trading day of Taiwan stocks after the Lunar New Year, The probability of opening and closing a profit is 69.6%, which is also nearly 70%.
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