Li Bochen, discretionary director of FedEx (provided by the industry)

Li Bochen, Carte blanche director of Federal Investment Trust

As U.S. bond yields rose in late December and hit a new high in nearly a month, the trend of large-scale technology stocks was dragged down. In addition, the impact of the recent spread of the epidemic in China on the supply chain has intensified, which has also heightened investors' expectations for the U.S. in 2023. Doubts of recession.

Fortunately, the United States announced last week that the number of initial jobless claims has increased for two consecutive weeks. The market believes that the job market is cooling down, and housing-related data continues to decline in November, which will help the Federal Reserve to moderate its monetary policy next year.

Therefore, after a wave of downward corrections in late December, the U.S. stocks and Taiwan stocks with high linkages since New Year's Day have shown signs of stabilization.

In addition, in addition to the obvious cooling trend of US inflation, the PMI data released by 1/4 of the Eurozone also showed signs of economic activity picking up and inflationary pressures falling.

In terms of Taiwan stocks, the four major U.S. stock indexes (1/4) closed up, driving the market to open higher today. The larger gains were supported by stocks such as shipping, memory, and IC design, which fell deeply last year, and pushed up the market. It rose more than 100 points at the opening. Driven by semiconductor stocks, it broke through the half-year line. Today, it rose 101.92 points and closed at 14301.05 points.

In the future, as foreign capital will gradually return, the momentum of funds is expected to recover. If the weighted index breaks through the 10-day moving average, it can be regarded as a short-term rebound signal for the broader market. Priority attention can be given to individual stocks in groups with favorable themes fermenting and technical strength relative to the broader market.

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From the perspective of industry fundamentals, only domestic demand-related industries are currently stable, and the electronics industry is still in the stage of inventory adjustment, and there is no obvious sign of demand recovery. We must beware of another profit revision in the financial report season after mid-to-late January and the economic system. sexual risk.

However, from a technical point of view, the monthly K value continues to rise, and the monthly KD maintains a golden cross. On the surface, the short-term pattern is still weak, but the daily KD forms a reversal structure with low-level deviation of the index. , pay more attention.

2023 is still a year full of challenges. In short-term considerations, there is still a risk of corrections in corporate profits. It is recommended that the level of holdings be maintained at a neutral level before the closure of Taiwan stocks to avoid the risk of long holidays.

In terms of operational strategy, the electronics group suggests that they should pay attention to stocks such as automotive electronics and servers with strong fundamentals; the mass-produced group can pay attention to the aviation, aerospace, tourism and hotel catering stocks that benefit from the unblocking and gradually enter the peak season. share.

In addition, in the medium and long term, you can also pay attention to topics related to optical lenses, green energy, energy storage, and electric vehicles.

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