Analysts said that after observing the annual decline of Taiwan stocks over the years, the probability of closing up in the next year is as high as 92%. It is estimated that Taiwan stocks will have a chance to usher in a wave of rebound in 2023.

(Photo by Central News Agency)

There is a 92% probability of closing up in the year after closing down

[Reporter Huang Haochen/Taipei Report] Taiwan stocks fell 4081 for the year.

One to five points, a drop of nearly twenty-two.

4%; analysts said that after observing the annual decline of Taiwan stocks over the years, the probability of closing up in the next year is as high as 92%. In addition, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of raising interest rates next year, and the pressure of international capital flight is small. It is estimated that Taiwan stocks may usher in a wave of rebound opportunities in 2023.

Liu Jialun, an analyst at Yongfeng Futures, said that since 1971, Taiwan stocks have closed down for 14 years, of which 13 have closed up in the following year, and the probability of closing up is as high as 92.

86%, plus this year’s decline of more than 22% in Taiwan stocks, it has already fallen deeply. At present, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike is coming to an end, and the pressure of foreign capital flight is relatively small. But we still need to pay attention to issues such as war and economic recession.

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Qunyi Futures analyst Gao Zixu believes that the current global semiconductor industry inventory level is still high. In addition to TSMC’s low inventory, foreign manufacturers such as Samsung, Qualcomm, and Huida have high inventory pressure. It is expected that the inventory will be removed until the third quarter of next year , coupled with the fact that the Federal Reserve is still shrinking its balance sheet, it is estimated that the downward pressure on global risk assets will be heavy, and Taiwan stocks still have room for downward revision in the first quarter of next year.

January market focus on Netcom electronic stocks

Guo Mingyu, chief investment officer of Prudential Greater China Stock Investment Market, observed that the electronics index in recent months has been relatively weak compared to the traditional industry. It is expected that after the end of the holiday at the end of the year and the return of foreign capital, electronics stocks are expected to become the protagonist of the Taiwan stock market in January and drive a wave of red envelopes. , especially China Netcom, servers, and IP with high visibility in the outlook, as well as beneficiary stocks such as automotive, green energy, and post-epidemic unblocking, you can also pay attention.

Guo Mingyu reminded that the Lunar New Year in the Year of the Rabbit is relatively early, which may trigger the market to be safe in advance, and Taiwan stocks will still be affected by global economic and inflation trends next year. Investors are advised to pay attention to international market trends such as US stocks and the US dollar. The index has a high probability of finishing at the high end.

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