Both legal persons and experts believe that the global economic growth will slow down next year, and it will not be easy for FHC to turn profits from overseas investments into profits.

(Reuters)

Reporters Wang Menglun, Wu Xintian / special report

Financial Holding Group's largest overseas exposure is "investment".

However, there are gains and losses in investment, and this year is particularly bad!

According to the statistics of the Financial Regulatory Commission, at the end of the third quarter of this year, the overseas investment of financial holdings suffered a loss of 905.6 billion yuan, the worst in the same period in history; legal persons and experts pointed out that this year’s high inflation and strong interest rate hikes will slow down the global economic growth next year or even decline. Under the circumstances, it is "not easy" for FHC to turn profits from overseas investments into profits.

Among them, at the end of the third quarter of this year, the original amount of overseas investment of the Financial Holding Group was 20.35 trillion yuan.

However, the aforementioned amount has not been deducted from the appraised profit and loss. After the deduction, the "net investment" has dropped to 19.45 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to an unrealized loss of 0.9 trillion yuan on the account, which is a heavy loss.

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After the figures of overseas investment profits and losses were released, it also set off a "shock bomb" in the financial circle.

The head of the financial holding company explained that the main reason is that the overseas stock market and bond market are highly disturbed this year. The interest rate hikes in various countries have led to a decrease in the evaluation benefits of holding bonds. In addition, the global stock market crash has caused the overseas investment in the financial industry to "kick the iron plate" and show serious losses. Dire situation.

In particular, further comparison, if compared with the 114.1 billion yuan made by the overseas investment of the financial holding industry at the end of the third quarter of last year, but the end of the third quarter of this year did not make a profit and reversed the loss, and it suffered a huge loss of 900 billion yuan in one breath, which can be said to be "disastrous ".

Investing 7.83 trillion yuan in the United States, the maximum loss is 0.38 trillion yuan

In addition, as far as individual countries are concerned, at the end of the third quarter, the highest amount of the original position of my financial holdings' overseas investment was 7.83 trillion yuan in the United States; and the largest investment in the United States also suffered the worst loss, with a big loss of 0.38 trillion yuan.

Therefore, the net investment of the financial holding industry in the United States is 7.45 trillion yuan.

What do legal persons or experts think about the outlook for overseas investment next year?

Is there any chance for the financial holding industry to sweep away the gloom and "turn losses into profits" in overseas investments?

"In early 2023, the world and the United States will enter into an economic recession, and it may be inevitable!" Cathay United Bank Chief Economist Lin Qichao analyzed that as the stock market is facing negative conditions such as low valuations and downward revisions to corporate earnings, the stock market must wait for inventory adjustments to improve. There is room for upward movement; in the bond market, short-term debt may be a good consideration if there is a need for short-term mooring of funds and the risk tolerance is low.

HSBC Investment Trust also predicts that the United States will enter an economic recession in 2023, with corporate profits declining in the first half of the year, followed by a GDP recession in the second half of the year.

Although Asia will still be affected by the slowdown in global economic growth, HSBC believes that inflation and economic conditions in most Asian economies in 2023 are better than those in the West.

In general, the director of China National Bank emphasized that due to various uncertainties and risk variables in the next year, the financial holding industry wants to "turn losses into profits" in overseas investments.

In fact, it will still be very hard and difficult. Therefore, all business owners should handle it carefully.

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