Fan Zhenhong, Chief Analyst of Qunyi Futures.

(Photo by reporter Huang Haochen)

[Reporter Huang Haochen/Taipei Report] This year is coming to an end, looking forward to the first half of next year (2023), the outlook for the global investment market, affected by inflation and interest rate hikes, Fan Zhenhong, chief analyst of Qunyi Futures (6024), said that it is expected that in the first half of next year, the U.S. Although the interest rate hike is over, it will still lead the global risk assets to rise, and the price of U.S. government bonds will also go up. It is predicted that although the U.S. stock market will fluctuate violently next year, the bullish trend will be upward. The global stock market, including Taiwan stocks, will follow the U.S. stock market.

Fan Zhenhong pointed out that according to the forecast of the US Fed (Federal Reserve), the annual growth rate of the US economy next year will only be 0.5%. However, from the perspective of many financial forecasting agencies in the US, the general forecast is zero growth. It is estimated that the U.S. economy will not decline until the fourth quarter of next year, but the stock market may not necessarily fall in an economic recession.

Because the U.S. government has been bailing out and subsidizing the people, household income continues to grow even though interest rates continue to rise, unaffected by inflation.

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Fan Zhenhong mentioned that the Fed may decide interest rates to reach the peak in the second quarter of next year, so that inflation is expected to decline. Looking forward to the first half of next year, he expects that although the US stock market is expected to fluctuate violently in 2023, the bullish trend will be upward and lead the global stock market to fluctuate Rising, Taiwan stocks are highly correlated with U.S. stocks, and the probability of rising is predicted to be high. However, it also depends on China's epidemic prevention policy to examine the growth momentum of the global economy.

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