The Academia Sinica held a press conference on "General Outlook of Taiwan's Economic Situation in 2023" today.

(Photo by reporter Xu Ziling)

[Reporter Xu Ziling/Report from Taipei] Academia Sinica's Institute of Economics released its latest economic forecast today (22nd), predicting that Taiwan's economic growth rate will be 2.94% this year and only 2.41% next year, which is more conservative than the central bank's forecast of 2.53% next year.

Zhou Yutian, a part-time researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Academia Sinica, said that next year's economic growth will decline significantly. The probability of a recession in the United States is generally predicted to exceed 50%. Uncertainty factors in China are still high, and it is impossible to expect China's economy to resume high growth. Overall, Taiwan's GDP growth is not optimistic.

The Academia Sinica released the "General Outlook for Taiwan's Economic Situation in 2023" today, pointing out that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War will continue in 2022, global inflation will rise, and most major economies such as the United States and Europe will adopt tightening monetary policies, which will affect terminal demand and cause serious exports and investments in my country. traumatized.

However, private consumption picked up significantly in the third quarter, and it is estimated that the economic growth rate will reach 2.94% in 2022.

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"The performance of this kind of economic growth is actually better than that of other countries," Zhou Yutian said. The main reason is that Taiwan's consumption power has recovered in the third quarter of this year, the effect of transferring orders has continued to ferment, and the government has promoted investment in Taiwan. In a healthy state, the economy will still grow by nearly 3% this year.

Looking forward to 2023, with the opening of the border, consumption momentum is expected to continue to increase. However, the global economy is cooling down and manufacturers’ inventory pressure continues. my country’s foreign trade and investment will continue to be sluggish. The real economic growth rate is expected to be 2.41% in 2023.

In addition, the Academia Sinica is also relatively pessimistic about inflation next year. Many domestic think tanks predict that the annual CPI growth rate will drop below 2% next year, but the Academia Sinica estimates that it will still be 2.15%.

As for the Academia Sinica’s economic growth forecast is relatively conservative, Zhou Yutian said that the main reason is that during the period between the central bank’s forecast and the Academia Sinica’s forecast, there are still new news, such as a 23.4% year-on-year drop in export orders in November, and the U.S. central bank’s interest rate hike. The impact of China and other markets has exceeded external expectations, so the Academia Sinica is relatively negative about the economic outlook for next year.

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