The global semiconductor market is expected to decline by 10-20% in 2023.

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[Reporter Zhuo Yijun/Taipei Report] The global semiconductor industry is blowing a cold wind, and the recession next year has become an established reality. Chen Huiming, a partner of Polycore Capital, said that the global semiconductor market is expected to decline by 10-20% in 2023. Among them, TSMC (2330) is due to With Apple orders, the decline is about 3%. Global semiconductor capital expenditures will decrease by 20% to 30% next year. The highlight of next year will be the new application market. High-speed computing ICs will grow at a compound annual rate of 30%, which will be the mainstream of growth in recent years. In 2025, a new wave of bull market growth will be ushered in, and electric vehicle ICs will be the protagonists.

Cheng Zhenghua, chief investment officer of Tengxu Investment, holds a relatively positive view on the semiconductor group. Cheng Zhenghua pointed out that the market has mostly reflected that the economic recession next year will be negative. The most important theme of the electronics industry next year is "recovery". After the sharp drop in IC design inventory, the emergence of urgent orders can drive the theme of technology recovery.

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Regarding the overall economy, Cheng Zhenghua believes that corporate profits are in a downward revision cycle, but the bottom should not be far away. If the United States switches from raising interest rates to cutting interest rates, and China’s economy restarts, the war between Russia and Ukraine can be relieved. It is estimated that the first quarter of next year may be The bottom of the IC design industry.

Chen Huiming added that geopolitics has changed the rules of the game in the global semiconductor industry. Taiwan's semiconductors will be more closely linked to the US Internet and electric vehicle giants for new transformation applications. The compound annual growth rate of electric vehicle ICs will exceed 30%. Development of automotive IC and third-generation semiconductors.

Chen Huiming and Cheng Zhenghua used to be the chief analysts of semiconductors in the Asia-Pacific region of foreign-funded UBS, and they have always paid attention to the semiconductor industry.

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