"DIGITIMES" predicts that the revenue of global foundry industry will fall into negative growth next year.

(Reuters file photo)

[Reporter Fang Weijie/Taipei Report] The U.S.-China technology war affects the development prospects of global semiconductors. The research organization "DIGITIMES" pointed out through "Technology Trends 2023" today that the global wafer foundry map will be reshuffled to face the overall economy and chip demand. Adjustment, it is estimated that the revenue of the global foundry industry will fall into negative growth next year. In the long run, geopolitics may become a hidden worry for the development of Taiwan's foundry industry.

"DIGITIMES" analyst Zejia Chen said that semiconductor sales in the Asia-Pacific region have dropped significantly in the first three quarters of 2022, and it is estimated that terminal product shipments will stabilize in 2023. Restarting to pick up goods, the main sources of wafer demand for personal computers and notebooks are currently under observation. main source of demand.

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Chen Zejia mentioned that global semiconductor foundries will continue to expand production capacity in 2023, but the scale is conservative compared with 2022, including TSMC (2330) Tainan 3nm plant, China Nanjing 28nm plant, UMC (2303) Tainan 28nm plant , the world's advanced (5347) Hsinchu 0.18 micron factory, as well as South Korea's Samsung, the United States GlobalFoundries, China SMIC and Huahong, etc., are expected to expand their production capacity no more than 50K per month.

"DIGITIMES" predicts that the global foundry revenue in 2022 is forecast to be US$137.2 billion, with an annual increase of 25.8%, and the growth range for next year is expected to decrease by 0% to 5% annually. Looking at last year, more than 90% of the world's Wafer production capacity is concentrated in Asia, with only 7% to 8% in the United States and less than 1% in Europe. Under the disruption of the epidemic and the fact that countries regard wafers as national security strategic materials, the main origin of wafers was originally China, South Korea, and Taiwan , the United States, Singapore, and Israel, and will expand to India and France next year, as well as new production bases in existing regions.

Chen Zejia said that the United States will hold back the direction of China's semiconductors in the future. In the short term, it will adjust its semiconductor policy to China in a rolling manner. In the long term, it will independently develop advanced manufacturing processes and de-sinify the key supply chain. South Korea is preparing to form the "Chip 4" alliance, and China has signed a memorandum of cooperation with South Korea in order to break through the siege. The key to the success of the two powers will depend on the European Union, which has not yet made a clear statement and has equipment and materials.

Chen Zejia believes that as Taiwan's geopolitical risks rise, the United States has reminded the world that relying on Taiwan's foundry will expose semiconductor supply to high risks, and Taiwanese factories have launched their own "multi-regional investment" plans. Long-term capital expenditure burden and competitiveness maintenance will become the focus of future development.

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