Foreign investors' views on Taiwan stocks will be neutral to positive. Investors can pay attention to three major themes.

The picture shows Google Taiwan Data Center.

(file photo)

■Yao Zonghong

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell in October, and inflation is expected to peak. Foreign investors covered weight stocks, and Berkshire, a company owned by Warren Buffett, bought shares in TSMC’s ADR, boosting Taiwan stocks in the short term.

According to research and judgment, as of Christmas, the views of foreign investors will be neutral to positive. At present, if the global economy does not experience a serious economic recession, the stock market is almost close to the bottom signal, and the investment atmosphere is gradually improving.

Although Taiwan stocks held on to the 14,500 round-number mark last week, they lost half-yearly gains and lost three times in a row for the week, with a total gain of 497 points last week.

With the passing of the "Taiwan version of the chip law", semiconductor stocks continue to play a supporting role, and the rapid market rotation, the follow-up foreign investment and investment chips, as well as the US CPI index and the Fed's pace of interest rate hikes will be the focus of continuous observation in the future .

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Looking back at the recent replenishment of foreign capital stocks, it is estimated that the Taiwan stock index will not change too much, and the range will fall at 14,000~15,000 points; if we look at the price-to-book value ratio, it is expected that 1.9~1.95 times will be a satisfactory point.

With short-term capital tightening and geopolitical risks easing, Taiwan stocks are expected to make up the market. In the fourth quarter, the market trend showed a neutral to positive view. Among them, optimistic about small and medium-sized stocks with a low base period may emerge as a dream market at the end of the year.

Master the dreaming market and preemptively lay out three major themes

Taiwan stocks have a chance to start the dream market before the end of the year. It is recommended that investors pay attention to industries with low evaluation, especially the three major groups that deserve attention.

Including: high-speed data centers, cloud business and server themes, such as the launch of Intel and AMD server CPU chips, and the recent US cloud industry companies Microsoft, Meta, Google, etc. continue to increase capital expenditures on cloud business, Taiwan stock related Stocks benefited in turn; simultaneously reflected the prosperity of the industry, and the subject matter was strong.

Furthermore, after the inventory reduction adjustment in the first half of next year is completed, the performance of PC and mobile phones is worth looking forward to.

In addition, industries with rising performance in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year can also be prioritized, such as panels, motherboards, and graphics card groups. Due to the launch of new products, revenue before the Lunar New Year can be supported, and the market outlook is even more bullish.

Policies support green energy and benefit from electric vehicle themes

In terms of themes, we continue to be optimistic about green electricity and electric vehicles.

The growth of electric vehicles is mainly concentrated in the mainland market this year. Although the subsidy policy expires next year, on the other hand, European and American government subsidies and incentive policies continue to increase, prompting the automobile manufacturing industry to increase the production of electric vehicles and launch new models, which will inject Taiwan's industries, such as charging pile wires , Diodes, power components, testing equipment.

In addition, if the destocking and adjustment status is not good, the funds may be transferred to the green energy industry, especially the global environmental protection awareness is rising, and the carbon reduction business opportunities are feverish. In addition, the green energy industry is supported by policies. It is expected that there will be performance in the second and third quarters of next year. space.

Retail welcomes the unblocking effect and can be deployed at a low price

It is worth noting that TSMC has soared this wave, but it did not meet the original expectations to drive the rise of electronics stocks; on the other hand, the biotechnology group of traditional production is still on the rise, mainly because biotechnology companies have made good profits this year, driving legal persons and large investors to enter the market. Market layout, but investors must pay attention to the risk of fluctuations in this theme.

Investors who prefer to pass on property can also turn their attention to the retail industry, which mainly benefits from the unblocking effect. In addition, the base period of stock prices is low, and the risk of volatility is also low. Investors can take advantage of the situation to make a bargain.

To sum up, the U.S. price index is beginning to slow down, and the Federal Reserve will release a clear peak and range of interest rate hikes, which will reflect bullishness in the short term and stimulate the market to rebound.

Overall, during the period of short-term rebound and volatility, investors are advised to use the layout of Taiwan stock funds to increase their positions in batches; in terms of industrial configuration, the ratio of electronics to mass production is 8:2, and electronics is mainly held by semiconductors, with servo Devices, electronic weight stocks, low-base semiconductor foundry, IC design stocks; Chuan Chuan focuses on green energy, electric vehicles, biotechnology and retail themes.

(The author is the director of the domestic investment department of Eastspring Investment Trust)

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