Malcolm Penn, founder of the well-known analysis agency Future Horizons, said that the global chip market will only grow by 4% this year, and predicted that the global chip market will crash next year, with sales falling by as much as 22%.

(Bloomberg)

[Compiled by Lu Yongshan/Comprehensive Report] Global semiconductor stocks have been hit hard recently with the US Federal Reserve (Fed) sharply raising interest rates. Under the uncertain global economic outlook, Malcolm Penn, founder of the well-known analysis agency Future Horizons, said: It also lowered the growth forecast for the global chip market this year and next. The global chip market will only grow by 4% this year, and predicted that the global chip market will crash next year, with sales falling by as much as 22%.

According to eeNews, Payne has been warning that the chip market may face a 17th recession in the past 18 months, and he pointed out at a web conference that the economy, industry demand, capital expenditure and average selling price (ASP) On the one hand, "every warning light is flashing red right now," and the outlook (for the chip market) is rarely this bad, especially with the global economy heading toward recession and inflation at the same time.

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Payne noted that growth in chip unit shipments has exceeded long-term averages for several quarters, meaning customers have been repeating orders and stockpiling components.

But as customers began to cut back on orders, so did average selling prices, which began to plummet in June, earlier than originally expected in the third quarter of this year.

Payne said the average selling price of ICs fell 18.1% from a peak of $1.35 in the second quarter of this year to $1.105 at the end of the quarter due to a 20.2% plunge in memory chip prices. Logic, microchip and analog IC components It is only a matter of time before the average selling price of (analog component) drops in the third quarter of this year.

In terms of semiconductor industry capital spending, Payne noted that it has been at an all-time high in recent years at 23% of total sales, above the long-term average of 13%, and most of this spending will continue to create capacity when the market doesn't need it. .

In this webinar, Payne concluded that the chip market collapsed a little earlier than expected, which led to a lowering of growth forecasts.

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