[Reporter Xu Yiping/Taipei Report] The probability of interest rates rising three times in a row is high. Real estate developers expect that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates by half a yard at the end of the month. This year, the cumulative rate of interest rate hikes can reach two yards, about 0.5%. Once the interest rate hike is confirmed at the end of the month, the mortgage interest rate It will challenge the 6-year high since 2016.

Xinyi Housing surveyed its official website members on the impact of three consecutive interest rate hikes on their willingness to buy a home. Among them, 41% of the respondents believed that it would not be affected, 39% believed that the increase in interest rates would reduce the budget for home purchases, and 16% of the respondents believed that the impact of interest rate hikes If it is too large, it will suspend the home purchase plan. In other words, as many as 55% of the respondents, that is, more than half of the respondents believe that the interest rate hike will affect the home purchase plan.

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Zeng Jingde, project manager of Xinyi Housing Real Estate Enterprise Research Office, said that after the violent interest rate hike in the United States, the real estate market has reversed and corrected, showing that a large interest rate hike will have a significant impact on the real estate market. Long-term low interest rates, coupled with the sharp rise in housing prices in recent years, have also increased and lengthened regardless of the loan amount or loan term. Therefore, in the face of this wave of interest rate hikes, both psychological and purse burdens will be relatively heavy. sense.

According to the estimation of the new mortgage interest rate of the central bank, the new mortgage interest rate of the five major banks before the interest rate hike in February this year was 1.367%. If the interest rate is raised by half a yard this quarter, the cumulative interest rate will increase by two yards this year, or 0.5%. In the future, the interest rate of newly contracted mortgages will start from 1.86%. As for the last mortgage interest rate exceeding 1.85%, it can be recalled to January 2016.

However, Zeng Jingde pointed out that even though the country has entered a cycle of interest rate hikes, interest rates will always fluctuate in the long run. Maybe there will be a crisis in a few years, and the trend of interest rate hikes will reverse again. It is recommended that homebuyers avoid excessive financial leverage and try to calculate interest rates in advance. If it reaches 2%, will it affect the quality of life, and at the same time avoid long-term dependence on the use of the grace period, even if the impact of interest rate hikes will be relatively limited.

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