Prior to the Russian invasion, Ukrainian companies shipped about 5 million tons of grain a month through Black Sea ports.
Without exaggeration, caravans of bulkers, special vessels for bulk cargo, marched into the Mediterranean from the Black Sea, all of which carried Ukrainian wheat, corn, barley, and other grains.
With the start of the war, Russia not only captured part of the port cities on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast, but also began to block the Ukrainian grain trade.
Nastoyaschee Vremya TV channel tells about the details.
“Russian ships are standing in the Black Sea.
They blocked international ships that had arrived in Ukraine before the war: they could not leave.
Also, ships that are loaded with grain and then leave all over the world cannot enter, ”Dzyanis Marchuk, deputy chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, said.
The European Commission is now looking for opportunities to export grain from Ukraine.
In particular, they are currently working on the possibility of exporting millions of tons of grain by rail and other means of transport, which is blocked in ports and elevators due to the blocking of Ukrainian ports by the Russian fleet.
However, this will require tremendous effort and fundamentally new logistics.
After all, one bulk carrier can take on board about 60 thousand tons of grain.
A truck, for example, only a few dozen tons.
And even if all the export grain from Ukraine suddenly somehow managed to be delivered to the Mediterranean ports of Europe, not everywhere would be able to instantly reload these grains on merchant ships.
“Let's not forget that European ports have a planned port activity and their own schedule.
When they planned their work, they did not plan that they would have to transport grain cargo from Ukraine, ”political scientist Alyaksei Yakubin notes.
Vladimir Putin predicts a "record grain harvest" in the history of Russia: "130 million tons, including 87 million tons of wheat."
And predicts that Russia will enter new markets.
At the same time, according to CNN, Russia, in addition to its grain, already sells Ukrainian, captured in the occupied territories.
Journalists with the help of satellite images tracked the ship that delivered grain to Syria from the occupied Crimea.
Before that, the cargo was transported to the peninsula by cars from Ukrainian elevators.
"We are talking about the situation in the occupied parts of Ukraine: Kherson, part of the Zaporozhye region, Donetsk, Lugansk.
In fact, it is about 500 thousand tons of grain, which are actually sent from the territory of Ukraine today, ”Dzyanis Marchuk estimates.
He estimates that these 500,000 tons of grain could cost more than $ 150 million: this is a serious damage to the budget of Ukraine.
In addition, Marchuk emphasizes, it is important to understand that grain will not receive long-term trading partners of Kiev.
And this is not only the rich western countries, but also the developing countries of North Africa and the Middle East.
In these regions, grain shortages could lead to famine and mass protests.
Remember the "Arab Spring" of 2011.
In fact, it all started with the fact that people did not have money, and prices for grain and flour rose very high, - he recalls.
- And in fact it has led to the fact that Europe eventually received through the "Arab Spring" a very large number of refugees.
The same question stands today. "
“This war has actually started the global food crisis.
In addition to the fact that products will now be physically unavailable, rising prices will make many segments of the population economically vulnerable, - agrees with Marchuk Taras Vysotsky, First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine.
- They just can't afford to buy much.
If we do not stop the rise in prices in the medium term, there may be such a long-term effect, then it will take years to restore it.
“All the agricultural products that were produced were consumed.
Therefore, if we have physically some tens of millions of tons of food do not go anywhere, they can be replaced only by reducing consumption, - explains Vysotsky.
- Can these products be taken to other countries, which, accordingly, should reduce consumption.
In any case, there will be a deficit.
And if you can not buy these products, there will be no money, because everything is very expensive in these not very rich countries, then physically reduce consumption. And this can lead if not to death, then to a significant violation of the dietary balance of this population.
A new crop of cereals in Ukraine will be harvested in a few months.
But experts say that so far in many developing countries, grain stocks may be virtually depleted.
And it is simply impossible to replenish them quickly while the Black Sea is blocked by the Russian military.