And it seems that Donald Tusk's government missed the moment for a timely reaction, and now, a month before the local elections on April 7 and the European Parliament on June 9, it does not know how to proceed.

More precisely, they are ready to neglect good-neighborly and partnership relations with Ukraine to suit their own political interests.

After the second unsuccessful meeting of Prime Minister Donald Tusk with farmers on Saturday, March 9, they are threatening to "stop" the entire country.

"On March 20, we announce a protest in all of Poland, in every commune, in every county. From 7 in the morning to 7 in the evening, the whole of Poland will stop. Children will not go to school, people will not go to work, but we have no other way out," he said. after the meeting with Tusk, farmer Stanislav Barna.

In a video message on March 3, Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that the situation on the Polish-Ukrainian border has gone beyond economic and moral boundaries.

"It is simply impossible to explain how the difficulties of a bleeding country can be used in an internal political struggle," the Ukrainian president added.

This statement came after Tusk's ambiguous comments about the possibility of a complete border closure to suspend mutual trade.

Although Polish business will actually suffer more from such a radical decision.

So, is there a chance for reconciliation between Ukraine and Poland?

Why is the Tusk government following marginal protesters and farmers?

And what actions should we expect from Warsaw next?

TSN

Provocations and attacks on the police: protests are becoming radicalized

A protest of several thousand farmers in Warsaw, announced for March 6, turned into clashes with the police.

Not far from the Diet and the prime minister's office, protesters burned tires, threw firecrackers, stones and cobblestones at law enforcement officers.

14 policemen, who had to use batons, tear gas and stun grenades, were injured.

55 people were detained, whom many Polish media call provocateurs.

Most of them were drunk.

Some even walked around the city in sackcloth, which was supposed to resemble medieval clothing, implying that Polish farmers were just as poor.

Photos and videos of this protest were circulated by European and even American media, once again demonstrating that the Polish government either does not control the situation or does not want to curb the protests of farmers, using the issue of Ukrainian exports in its own political interests.

Indeed, both Tusk himself, and Speaker of the Seimas Szymon Holovnia (who currently has the highest political rating in Poland - ed.), and police chiefs called the protesters who committed provocations "hooligans."

In most cases, there are already relevant court decisions.

However, in general, the current Polish authorities do not deny the right of farmers to protest, taking into account the blockade of the Ukrainian border, stressing that Poland is a democracy.

Indeed, farmers' protests are very often quite outrageous.

For example, the other day, Czech farmers scattered manure on the streets of Prague.

Earlier in Warsaw, near Tusk's office, protesters burned a coffin with the inscription "A farmer who lived for 20 years was killed by the "green deal". However, during the protest of Polish farmers there were at least four cases when Ukrainian grain, corn was dumped on the road or railway tracks And in no case did Kyiv hear a proper condemnation of such illegal actions by the Polish government.

Moreover, there were members of the openly pro-Russian party "Confederation" at farmers' protests near the Ukrainian border, as well as at the end of last year at the actions of Polish transporters, who also blocked our border crossings.

However, again, we have not seen any proper reaction from the Polish government, nor any investigations into the possible influence of Moscow on all this.

Moreover, a lot was said about the support of this protest by the former ruling party in Poland "Law and Justice".

But it seems that now it is almost an established fact: party leader Yaroslav Kaczyński announced a large march in Warsaw on May 18 in support of Polish farmers, who are his large electorate, with a demand for the Diet to adopt a resolution on the "green course" and an embargo on Ukrainian grain.

In addition, Candidate of Political Sciences, Corresponding Member of the Ukrainian Academy of Geopolitics and Geostrategy, Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, reminds that the Deputy Minister of Agriculture of Poland, Michal Kolodziejczak (who was elected on the lists of Tusk's "Civic Coalition", but is the leader of "Agrounia", which was the organizer of farmers' protests a year ago) condemned the actions of the police, calling them "cruel" and "unprofessional.

"We see that the situation is still far from being resolved. Tusk is still trying to satisfy the farmers' demands. Most likely, there will be a resolution of the situation related to the "green deal". Maybe there will be some relaxation for Poland or even everything of European farming. But there is also a political factor. Kolodziejczak criticizes his coalition partners for these detentions. Therefore, we see again and again how fragile this alliance is. Actually, Tusk last year included Kolodziejczak on his list to have the support of farmers. And now we see what this "support" has resulted in. He can no longer do anything with these farmers. That is, in fact, he has to look for different ways to satisfy their demands," Stanislav Zhelikhovsky comments for TSN.ua.

The government wants to buy grain: how the EU economy "works".

What do Polish farmers demand?

First of all,

their protest is part of the pan-European actions of agrarians that swept through Italy, Spain, the Czech Republic, Germany and other countries.  

Secondly,

all European farmers demand that the EU's "green transition" rules, which provide for limiting the use of fertilizers and pesticides as part of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, will not be extended to them, which, they say, will increase the price of agricultural products.

Thirdly,

it is Polish farmers who demand a complete restriction of the export of Ukrainian agricultural products to Poland until the border is closed.

"The prime minister said (Donald Tusk at a meeting with farmers on Saturday, March 9 - ed.) that he will try to convince the European Commission regarding the 'green course'. As for the border, he said that he will not close the border," said farmer Andrzej Sobotinsky.

The next meeting of Donald Tusk with farmers is scheduled for Monday, March 11.

However, on Thursday, March 7, speaking at the European People's Party congress in Bucharest, the Polish Prime Minister stated that maintaining the free trade regime between Ukraine and the EU would harm both the bloc itself and Ukraine itself:

"After all, if we lose not enthusiasm, but widespread support for Ukraine in Europe and Poland, because people will be tired of carrying too heavy a burden, then we will all lose: both Europe, and Poland, and, above all, Ukraine. Therefore, the regime of free trade with Ukraine must be limited in order to effectively protect the European and Polish markets again. I hope that this will turn into joint actions at the level of the European Council."

What does Donald Tusk mean?

In May 2022, to support the Ukrainian economy during a full-scale Russian invasion, the EU zeroed out all tariffs and quotas on our exports.

This also applied to the cancellation of work permits in the EU for Ukrainian carriers.

Although usually the countries joining the EU have been negotiating about it for years.

However, a lot has changed since 2022.

Currently, only 5% of our agricultural exports are exported through the Polish border, the rest goes by sea, because the Defense Forces of Ukraine managed to establish their own grain corridor.

"If you look at this situation, it raises a lot of questions. After all, Poland has already unilaterally banned the import of Ukrainian grain into Poland itself. So the question arises, why are they protesting against grain from Ukraine, if it is already under the ban? To ban what already prohibited? If the situation there does not improve, we are also ready to go further and start the infringement procedure against these countries," said Vice President of the European Commission (EC) Valdis Dombrovskis.

Currently, a deadline of sorts for both farmers and Tusk's government is March 15, when the European Commission must announce its decision on how the "green transition" will be extended to farmers, whether there will be any relaxations and transitional periods.

It is very good that the Polish Prime Minister clearly stands on the position of the impossibility of completely closing the border with Ukraine.

However, at the same time, he does nothing to unblock it, promising Polish farmers to simply buy back their grain surpluses (every spring, farmers hold back the sale of grain, hoping for price increases - ed.) with the state budget, which testifies to the "excellent" work of the Polish economy, as part of the European economy with market conditions.

What will happen next: we expect new bans

Valdis Dombrovskis has already hinted that the EC is ready to make concessions to Ukraine's neighboring countries, limiting the import of sugar, eggs and poultry, in addition to the already banned wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower.

This is what Brussels is ready to foresee in the next decision to extend for another year - until June 5, 2025 - the decision to cancel all quotas and duties on Ukrainian exports.

However, Polish farmers are no longer satisfied with this: a few weeks ago, they wanted to extend the embargo not only to sugar, eggs and poultry meat, but also to soft fruits, honey, apple juice and oil;

and now they demand to completely close the border.

And, given the way things are developing, Tusk's government may well go for further restrictions on additional commodity positions of Ukrainian exports, which will cause a cascade reaction from our other neighbors.

Kyiv communicated this with Warsaw at all levels.

However, Tusk's government has apparently decided to use the Ukrainian "card" in internal political battles, so as not to lose ratings on the eve of local elections on April 7.

According to the head of the "Regional security and conflict research" direction of the Democratic Initiatives Fund named after

Ilka Kucheriva, a researcher at the Maria Zolkina London School of Economics and Political Sciences, should not hope that any actions of Kyiv now could potentially turn the tide of the situation in Poland in favor of Ukraine.

"These protests and the blockade at the border concern not only Ukrainian imports or even transit, but a whole series of issues that have nothing to do with Ukraine. And the border blockade is about the relations of Polish farmers, the Polish countryside, in the broadest sense of the word, actually rural provincial electorate (about 40% of Poles live in villages - ed.) with the Polish authorities on the one hand, and on Warsaw's relations with Brussels on the other. But does this mean that Ukraine should go with the flow and do nothing at all? Exactly - no We can take a number of measures that can maximize this impact," TSN.ua Maria Zolkina says.

Firstly,

according to the researcher, he has the most calm and constructive position at the intergovernmental and higher political level.

That is, it is necessary to avoid sharp political movements and statements as much as possible, but at the same time to intensify the interaction at the working level precisely between both ministries of agriculture and governments, and direct all claims and opportunities there.

Secondly,

it is as easy as possible to use EC mediation in a bureaucratic sense.

"Last year, a mistake was made on the Ukrainian side, when appeals to the EC were made in a political sense, they say, do something, influence Warsaw. Now, the Polish government and Tusk personally, understanding the scale of the problem, which is actually partially beyond the control of the government, themselves are interested in reaching a rational solution, at least on the border, with minimal political losses inside the country, in particular electoral losses. And this time, the chances that the EC will be able to play the role of a mediator are quite high. And this is a window of opportunity for Ukraine. But it will close as soon as the Ukrainian side starts making some sharp political statements about letting the EU deal with Warsaw again," Maria Zolkina notes.

Thirdly,

this is not a new advice, but, unfortunately, it is minimally implemented by the Ukrainian political leadership - it is to avoid populist steps.

For example, the story about the trip of Ukrainian government officials to the border and, in general, the plans of Zelensky himself to meet at the border with the Polish side, definitely do not correspond to the need to solve the issue bureaucratically.

Fourthly,

the situation has really gone too far, because emotional tension in this particular category of the population (Polish peasantry protesting - ed.) can lead to more serious problems at the household level.

"And I have more advice on a cautious position with statements from the Ukrainian side, not because Ukraine should show some weakness in this way and wait for the Poles to decide to be constructive, but because, unfortunately, all this can have the most negative impact on everyday attitude towards Ukrainians in Poland (and, in fact, it has already started to be felt - ed.)," concludes Maria Zolkina.  

On March 28, in fact, a little more than a week before the local elections in Poland, a meeting between Denys Shmyhal and Donald Tusk is scheduled in Warsaw.

It is futile to hope that Warsaw, trying to knock out the farming and peasant electorate "from under the feet" of "Rights and Justice" and the pro-Russian Confederation, will make some concessions to Ukraine.

However, the Polish authorities must also understand that the prolongation of the problem can really spill over to the everyday level, when Ukrainians in Poland (who, by the way, deduct considerable sums from the Polish budget) will begin to be harassed simply because they are Ukrainians.

Tusk's government should finally start refuting pro-Russian fakes about Ukrainian grain, which are spreading across Poland with phenomenal speed.

A vivid example is "low-quality Ukrainian grain causes cancer in Polish children."

And, of course, a significant step towards the meeting on the part of the Polish government will be the decision to ban the import of agricultural products from Russia and Belarus.